07/04/2008 - (Baseball Betting) - Up-and-down right-hander Bronson Arroyo goes for a second straight victory today when the Cincinnati Reds continue a four-game series against the visiting Washington Nationals at Great American Ball Park.
Arroyo, a native of Key West, Florida, has failed to find a consistent rhythm all year, losing his first three decisions before winning four of five and then losing three straight.
He rebounded somewhat with a 9-5 interleague defeat of Cleveland in his most recent effort on June 29 in Northeast Ohio.
In that game, the member of the 2004 World Series champion Boston Red Sox allowed five hits and an earned run in six innings, walking two batters and striking out six.
He'd suffered through the toughest outing of his career just five days earlier, getting roughed up for 11 hits and 10 runs in one inning of a 14-1 loss at Toronto.
Arroyo has split two decisions in four career starts against the Nationals, posting a 5.95 earned run average in 19 2/3 innings.
For Washington, right-hander Jason Bergmann starts against the Reds for the first time.
The 26-year-old, a 2002 draft pick of the Montreal Expos, has pitched two innings in two relief appearances against Cincinnati, allowing three hits and a run and walking a batter.
He earned his most recent 2008 victory back on May 15 against the New York Mets, tossing seven innings of three-hit ball in a 1-0 victory.
He's 0-4 in eight starts since, but has pitched well in the last two, giving up just two earned runs in 12 hits in 14 innings against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Baltimore.
On Thursday, Brandon Phillips drove in three runs on three hits to lift the Reds over the Nationals, 5-3.
Johnny Cueto (7-8) tossed seven strong innings for the Reds, who won for the first time in three outings. The 22-year-old rookie Dominican allowed three runs on seven hits and one walk, while striking out eight, including the first three hitters of the game. He earned the win in his first career start against Washington.
Elijah Dukes homered and drove in two for the Nationals, who took six of seven from the Reds last season and have lost three of four overall.
Jesus Colome (2-2) suffered the defeat in relief of John Lannan. Colome was tagged for two unearned runs on one hit and one walk. Lannan went the first six innings as he yielded three runs, five hits and three walks.
Washington took six of seven from the Reds last season.
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fireworks are sure to fly in South Philadelphia tonight, as
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The Phillies and Mets ba
<< Rays try to keep shining in opener with Royals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays will try to run their winning streak to
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<< Mariners try again to tame surging Tigers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers try to continue their recent dominance
of the Seattle Mariners when the two teams continue their four-game series
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Dodgers have had problems scoring runs for
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Federer reaches sixth Wimbledon final >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 1 Roger Federer, seeking a
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins hope to keep their recent hot streak
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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