07/04/2008 - (Baseball Betting) - The NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks are finally back at the .500 mark and will try to maintain their division lead tonight, when they open a three-game series versus the San Diego Padres at Chase Field.
Arizona sits just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the West, and just split a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers. The DBacks ended a two-game slide with Thursdays dramatic 6-5 victory in the series finale, as they rallied for six runs in the ninth to record the win.
Conor Jackson's two-run single capped the comeback and Chad Tracy had a pinch- hit three-run triple in the frame for Arizona, which had dropped six of eight entering the game and put the brakes on a two-game slide.
Arizona sent seven hitters to the plate and made a winner of Leo Rosales, who pitched a scoreless inning of relief. Starter Brandon Webb was in line for the loss after giving up five runs on nine hits in six innings, but was bailed out at the last moment.
The Diamondbacks will send Dan Haren to the hill on July 4th, and the right- hander is 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA in 17 starts this season. Haren is unbeaten (3-0) in his last six starts, with Arizona going 5-1 over that stretch. In his last outing on June 29 at Florida, Haren gave up just one unearned run in seven innings of a 4-3 loss for the no-decision. He fanned seven batters and issued a pair of walks.
The right-hander has been solid at home this season, sporting a 7-1 mark with a 2.41 earned run average in nine trips to the Chase Field mound. Haren is also holding the opposition to a .206 batting average in the friendly confines.
Haren is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA in four career games, three of which have been starts, against San Diego. He needs four more strikeouts to post 100 for the fourth consecutive season.
San Diego has lost two straight, 10 of 11 and 14 of its last 16 games, including Wednesdays 8-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies in the finale of a three-game set at Coors Field. Starter Randy Wolf lost his fourth consecutive outing, throwing only four innings and giving up seven runs on six hits with four strikeouts and four walks.
Brian Giles batted 2-for-4 and Chase Headley added his fourth home run of the season for San Diego, which has dropped six consecutive series. The Padres are last in the NL West standings, 10 games back of Arizona.
Cha Seung Baek gets the nod tonight for the Padres, and he is 1-4 with a 5.43 ERA in six games (five starts) this season. Baek is 0-3 in his previous five trips to the hill, having lost back-to-back starts. In his last outing on June 28 versus Seattle, Baek was reached for four runs and eight hits through five innings of a 4-2 setback.
The right-hander has never faced Arizona.
Arizona has won four of its six matchups with the Padres this season.
<< Mets, Phillies to renew rivalry with key weekend set
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fireworks are sure to fly in South Philadelphia tonight, as
the Phillies and New York Mets renew their National League East rivalry with
the opener of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies and Mets ba
<< Rays try to keep shining in opener with Royals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays will try to run their winning streak to
five games this evening, when they begin a four-game series with the Kansas
City Royals at Tropicana Field.
The Rays' current winning run includes a three-g
<< Mariners try again to tame surging Tigers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers try to continue their recent dominance
of the Seattle Mariners when the two teams continue their four-game series
this afternoon at Safeco Field.
Detroit has won six of seven from the Mariners th
<< Dodgers should get reinforcements for latest battle with Giants
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Dodgers have had problems scoring runs for
Derek Lowe this season. However, with two big-name players set to return from
the disabled list today, that may not be a problem.
Los Angeles is expected to get
Red Sox send Beckett to hill in holiday matinee with Yankees >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For an offense that hasn't produced many fireworks lately,
a matchup with Josh Beckett might be the last thing the New York Yankees want
to see right now. The Boston Red Sox ace will attempt to pitch his team to a
second stra
Buehrle, White Sox host Athletics and Blanton >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two pitchers who have delivered vastly different results
over the last month go head-to-head when the Chicago White Sox and Oakland
Athletics resume a four-game series tonight at U.S. Cellular Field.
Mark Buehrle is slated
Federer reaches sixth Wimbledon final >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 1 Roger Federer, seeking a
sixth straight title here, was an easy semifinal winner Friday at Wimbledon.
The reigning five-time champion from Switzerland extended his Wimbledon
winning streak
Red-hot Twins hope to keep rolling versus Indians >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins hope to keep their recent hot streak
going tonight, when the resurgent club begins a three-game home series against
a Cleveland Indians squad desperate to end a five-game slide.
Minnesota has amassed an
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers SPORTS TRASH TALK
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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