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06/06/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Next year the Atlanta Braves might be facing a scenario they haven't had since 1988. That is, starting a season without John Smoltz.
It was on July 23 of the 1988 season that a then 21-year-old Smoltz made his major league debut with the Braves after beginning the year with Triple-A Richmond. He beat the Mets on that day, the first step on what has truly been a Hall-of-Fame career.
However, that storied journey appears to be coming to an end. On Tuesday, Smoltz will meet with noted sports surgeon Dr. James Andrews, with season- ending surgery on his right shoulder to follow.
It has been an injury plagued season for the right-hander. He began the year on the disabled list due to tightness in his back, making his season debut on April 6 and beating the Mets. The 41-year-old then made four more starts before landing on the shelf due to an inflamed biceps tendon and inflamed rotator cuff.
Smoltz returned this past Monday and was expected to take over Atlanta's closer role, a position he excelled at from 2002-04, in hopes of easing the work on his arm. However, versus Florida on Monday the 1996 National League Cy Young Award winner gave up two runs and three hits to blow a save opportunity.
Obviously, something was not right with Smoltz. Two days after the blown save, Atlanta held a press conference to announce he would undergo surgery. And while Smoltz insists he will do everything he can to return next year, that is tough to imagine considering he doesn't even know yet what is wrong with his shoulder.
"They're (the surgeons) going to know within minutes when they get in there," Smoltz said. "I'm sure when I wake up that'll be the first question I ask, 'What did you find?' I'll have no problem with whatever they tell me."
While Smoltz, the only player in major league history with at least 200 wins and 150 saves, is trying to remain positive, this upcoming surgery certainly says the end is near, if it's not here already. At 41 years of age, even the smallest setback could frustrate Smoltz enough that he decides to call it quits.
After all, Smoltz has a family and life after baseball to think of and has to know his body can't take too much more punishment.
"Sleep has been very difficult for me," Smoltz remarked on Wednesday. "I've had a lot of pain. I can't compete against my body anymore."
Smoltz spent the first 12 years of his career as a starter. He missed the entire 2000 season after undergoing "Tommy John" surgery, then returned in 2001 and spent most of the year as a closer. He returned to the rotation in 2005.
That was one of the first signs that Smoltz wasn't ready to quit.
"I've pulled off a lot of miracles. I probably shouldn't have played this long and I'm just trying to see if I can extend it," Smoltz stated. "I know I said I'd never go through this (surgery) again. I tried to retire in 1999, too. As a matter of fact I did, but I got talked out of it."
Smoltz has a career mark of 210-147 in the regular season, and earlier this year became the 16th pitcher to reach 3,000 strikeouts. He is also the winningest pitcher in postseason history with a record of 15-4.
Who knows if he will get a chance to extend those numbers.
CHIPPER HITS 400
The wait is over for Chipper Jones. After hitting the 399th homer of his career on Tuesday before getting a rest in Wednesday's test against the Marlins, Jones joined the 400-homer club on Thursday when he took a Ricky Nolasco offering over the right field wall in the sixth inning of a 7-5 victory.
Jones now joins an elite group of active players who have accumulated a career batting average of .300 with 400-plus home runs and more than 1,300 RBI, along with Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez.
"It was good to get it out of the way -- (the pressure) starts to wear on you a little bit," said Jones. "Now that the monkey is off my back, I can swing easy and just let me the chips fall. It's been a long time coming and hopefully now we can relax and focus on our job."
The blast also moved Jones into sole possession of 43rd place on the all-time home run list, one ahead of both Andres Galarraga and Al Kaline.
Jones is in the midst of a stellar 2008 season, as he leads the majors with a .418 batting average to go along with 14 homers and 39 RBI in 56 games.
BRAVES DRAFT HIGH SCHOOL PITCHER
The First-Year Player Draft began on Thursday, and the Braves selected high school pitcher Brett DeVall, a left-hander out of Florida's Niceville High School, with their first pick.
DeVall was taken with the 40th selection of the draft as a compensatory pick the club got when reliever Ron Mahay signed with the Royals. Atlanta lost its own first-round pick because it signed Type-A free agent Tom Glavine in the offseason.
DeVall went 12-1 with a 0.41 ERA with Niceville, posting 140 strikeouts in 86 innings. Though he is committed to play at the University of Georgia, signing with the Braves is a very good possibility.
ON DECK
Atlanta begins a big three-game series on Friday with the Philadelphia Phillies, a team they trail by 3 1/2 games for the top spot in the NL East.
Tim Hudson (7-4, 3.01 ERA) starts Friday's opener against Jamie Moyer (6-3, 4.65), followed by Jo-Jo Reyes (2-3, 4.78) on Saturday against Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick (5-2, 5.00). Sunday's finale pits Jorge Campillo (2-0, 1.79) opposite Adam Eaton (2-3, 4.63).
Following that set, the road-challenged Braves start a 10-game, four-city road trip with three games in Chicago against the Cubs. The swing includes a makeup test in Colorado.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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