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06/01/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not since 2006 have the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners both failed to show up for the Belmont Stakes. That year the race was won by Jazil, a horse with just one win in seven career starts. This year, 12 colts and geldings are expected to enter the third leg of the Triple Crown and four of them have only recorded a single triumph.
Without Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky in the starting gate, Kentucky Derby runnerup Ice Box is expected to be the morning line favorite. The Nick Zito- trained colt exploded onto the scene with a nose victory over Pleasant Prince in the Florida Derby on March 20, and then might have been best in the Run for the Roses despite the second-place finish.
Two other three-year-olds that will take money at the betting windows are Fly Down, winner of the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park, and Preakness runnerup First Dude. The other nine horses will look to spring the upset the way Summer Bird (11-1) and Da' Tara (38-1) did the last two years.
In the first of two articles featuring the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes, I'll take a look at six expected longshots and try to make a case for each one, beginning with Spangled Star.
Trained by Richard Dutrow, who lost the Belmont (and the Triple Crown) with Big Brown in 2008, Spangled Star needed six races just to break his maiden. That win came on January 2 at Laurel by 4 1/4-lengths. His next start, and first for Dutrow, was in an entry level allowance/optional claimer on February 24. Spangled Star ran third at 7-2.
Dutrow then sent the chestnut colt into the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct against stablemate, D' Funnybone. Neither horse won the race as Afleet Again came from off the pace to reel in Ibboyee. Spangled Star got up for third at 28-1
Back in 2002, Sarava won the Belmont at odds of 70-1. Spangled Star won't be that high this Saturday but a victory will be considered even more of an upset since Sarava at least was a stakes winner heading into the race.
Dave in Dixie is another outsider that shouldn't even be entered. He hasn't won a race since last August and his last two attempts were a sixth-place finish in the San Felipe and a fifth-place effort, beaten 16 lengths, in the Illinois Derby. The race at Hawthorne was also his lone trek on traditional dirt so there is a good chance he prefers synthetics.
On the other hand, he did have viable excuses in both races as the two winners, Sidney's Candy and American Lion, won on the lead through slow internal fractions. Dave in Dixie is a horse that needs a very fast pace in front of him since he comes from way back.
The John Sadler trainee is also a horse that runs much better when fresh. That's important since this will be his first start since April 3 - the longest layoff of any of the 12 three-year-olds. If the Belmont pace is very fast, there's a small chance he could fill out the trifecta.
Uptowncharlybrown has not been able to put it all together after back-to-back wins in his first two starts. He ran a lackluster third to Rule and Schoolyard Dreams in the Sam F. Davis, and then finished fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby.
After the unfortunate death of trainer Alan Seewald prior to the Lexington Stakes, longtime assistant Linda White took over bringing in Garrett Gomez to ride. The son of Limehouse failed to grip the Polytrack surface early on, dropping back to next-to-last in the 1 1/16-mile event. However, the colt persevered and closed stoutly to finish third, beaten less than two lengths.
Kiaran McLaughlin is now in charge and he's been working his new three-year- old at Belmont Park in tandem with Trappe Shot.
Uptowncharlybrown should take to the Belmont surface and the distance should also suit. Nevertheless his ability to get the job done against top-flight three-year-olds is a major question mark.
Drosselmeyer is another colt that has had plenty of opportunities to shine. Unfortunately, something has always gone wrong in the end. His connections have now sought a change in jockeys as Mike Smith takes over for Kent Desormeaux, who rode the horse his last five starts.
Purchased for $600,000 as a yearling, the son of Distorted Humor won his first ever start on true dirt, breaking his maiden by six lengths as the 4-5 favorite. He won his next outing at nine furlongs and was then made the 2-1 favorite in the Risen Star Stakes.
Jumping up and winning a graded stakes race was not to be as Drosselmeyer hung like a chandelier in the fourth spot, losing by 1 3/4-lengths to Discreetly Mine. The Bill Mott-trainee was then let go at 9-2 in the Louisiana Derby and once again failed to fire late, finishing third to Mission Impazible by a full length.
Drosselmeyer sat out of the first two legs of the Triple Crown and prepped for the Belmont Stakes by running in the Dwyer on May 8. Sent off as the 7-10 favorite in the seven-horse race, the underachieving colt broke a couple of steps slow and trailed by four lengths right off the bat. He then switched from the rail to the four-path into the stretch and had zero answers for Fly Down, who cruised to a six-length win. One of these days Drosselmeyer will put it all together, but not this Saturday.
Stay Put is one of four horses in the race with three lifetime victories. (Ice Box, Fly Down and Interactif are the others.) He's also the only one of the four without a stakes victory. The son of Broken Vow is coming off a win on Derby Day in an allowance/optional claimer over the slop at Churchill Downs, but like Drosselmeyer, he couldn't get the job done in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, finishing fifth in the two Grade II events.
Stay Put needs a very fast pace in front of him and it's doubtful he'll get it on Saturday. He's also one of only two horses in the race that has failed to earn a Beyer figure over 90. The other is the longshot, Spangled Star.
Stately Victor caught lightning in a bottle at 40-1 in the Blue Grass Stakes and followed that effort up with a decent eighth-place finish in the Derby. Still, based on his running line in the Run for the Roses, he should have finished even higher.
Of the four horses that were in the back-of-the-pack early on, he ended up six lengths behind Ice Box, four in back of Make Music for Me and 1 3/4-lengths behind Lookin At Lucky.
It's true he made a much earlier move than that troika, but tiring at 1 1/4- miles will not help his chances at 1 1/2-miles. Remember, he's yet to win a race on conventional dirt as his two lifetime victories came on grass and over Polytrack.
Of these six longshots, only Drosselmeyer should be in the single-digit range. The betting public might also side with Uptowncharlybrown since he's never been higher than 4-1. Still, it's hard to back any one of these half-dozen colts as they seem up against it in the final leg of the Triple Crown.
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Eastern Kentucky's home opener pushed back >>
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The NFL preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for in the preseason.
New York Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs under hard-driving first-year coach Eric Mangini. Mangini rebuilt the offensive line with rookies D'Brickashaw Ferguson (the No. 4 pick in the 2007 Draft) and Ohio State center (the 29th pick in the first round). This season he upgraded the defense with rookie linebacker David Harris (Michigan) while the secondary picked up a much needed top-notch corner in Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).
The Jets have added balance to the offense for QB Chad Pennington with RB Thomas Jones, essentially stolen from the Bears. He will upgrade a New York ground game that was 20th in rushing with a weak 3.5 yards per carry. They have their first true feature back since Curtis Martin. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer prefers ball control, like his father Marty. In preseason, behind Pennington you’ll see second-year QB Kellen Clemens and mobile newcomer QB Marques Tuiasosopo.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The heat is on Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville as the Jaguars flopped last season despite a ton of talent. Keep in mind that under Del Rio the Jaguars have been outstanding in preseason with a 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS August mark. online football betting Their defense is loaded, it’s the offense that has been stuck in first gear the last few years.
Enter a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. He will try and upgrade a passing game that ranked 24th last season. Del Rio has criticized wide receivers and Matt Jones this summer, both of whom have battled injuries. It will be interesting to watch the “new” Jaguars passing game in preseason.
Arizona Cardinals: Word out of Arizona is that the players like new coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was the Steelers offensive coordinator last year. We think of Arizona as all-passing because their running game has been awful of late because of a poor offensive line. However, keep an eye on the running game in preseason as they’ve made a lot of changes.
The new coach brings in Russ Grimm to coach the offensive line (Grimm did a marvelous job building the Steelers line). They took Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard and they want more speed out of the offensive line for pulling and traps, a Pittsburgh staple under Bill Cowher.
Atlanta Falcons: While all the attention has been focused on QB Mike Vick’s off-field problems, new coach Bobby Petrino is revamping the Falcons from an all-running team to a more balanced one. Petrino likes the experience of backup QB Joey Harrington and he has veteran backup Chris Redman, who used to play for Petrino at Louisville and knows his offenses better than anyone. Petrino wants Vick to be more of a pocket passer.
The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback and newcomer WR Joe Horn should upgrade what was a below average wideout corps. Petrino is changing their old zone-blocking scheme to a more traditional in-line blocking scheme and the offensive line is bigger. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson was grabbed in the first round and the secondary got younger with former Auburn cornerback David Irons, who the Falcons think was a steal as a sixth-round pick.
Cleveland Browns: The 2007 Browns look like a double-edged sword. There was the excitement of the offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft) and free agent LG Eric Steinbach, then trading for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel feel they have a talented, balanced offense with these new pieces, plus TE >Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards.
However, were these moves made in desperation? And were they foolish ones? The Browns gave up their 2008 first-round pick for Quinn and we all know QBs take time to develop. And even first-round QBs can be busts (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith). We also don’t know if the offensive line is that much improved (31st in rushing in 2007) and they did nothing to improve a defense that was awful against the run (142 yds pg allowed).
The Browns have a new offensive coordinator in Rob Chudzinski. This is a young offense and Quinn looked tentative, indecisive and inaccurate early in camp. Crennel will play Charlie Frye, Quinn and Derek Anderson in preseason. And there is a mixed bag for rookie QBs receiving significant starts: Tim Couch (14), Kerry Collins (13), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Vince Young (13), Joey Harrington (12), Matt Leinart (11) and Kyle Boller (nine). While all the focus will be on the Browns new-look offense, I’m more concerned with the defense.
Carolina Panthers: Coach Jon Fox loves the ground game, but Carolina has made some interesting changes for 2007. Fox fired offensive coordinator Dan Henning and brings in Jeff Davidson to run the offense. Davidson has brought in zone-blocking schemes to the Panther offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style.
In zone-blocking, offensive linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Keep an eye in preseason on how Carolina adjusts as it will take time to learn the system. Fox has been one of the top coaches in preseason, with a 15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS August record.
Dallas Cowboys: WR Terrell Owens is still here, but QB Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells are gone. New head coach Wade Phillips takes over, replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season. Phillips was chosen by teary-eyed owner Jerry Jones partly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme.
Remember that Phillips was blitz-happy with the Chargers last season and early reports out of the Dallas camp have mentioned how the Cowboys have been blitzing a lot, a departure from Parcells. The theme of the 2007 Dallas defense appears to be one of attack.
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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends
We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS. Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned. For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go. As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190). Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet. For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction. On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later. Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick. Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com
New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS.
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”. With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit. Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.
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